U.S. Political Leaders Declare a ‘Crypto Capital’: BTC & ETH Thresholds Are Accelerating

3-Point Summary

• U.S. political leaders are pushing four major crypto policies, signaling a shift toward a pro‑crypto national strategy.
• These policies directly accelerate Bitcoin’s two structural thresholds and Ethereum’s three on‑chain finance thresholds.
• Together, they act as catalysts that could drive both BTC and ETH toward a major structural re‑rating by 2028.

U.S. political leaders are pushing policies that directly accelerate Bitcoin’s two structural thresholds—and aim to position America as the global capital of crypto.

U.S. Political Leaders Declare: “America Will Become the Global Crypto Capital”

※ This article is published in its current form and will be updated in two days to match the final Daily Crypto Times (DCT) format.

Key figures in U.S. politics have recently declared their intention to “make America the global capital of cryptocurrency.” President Trump has emphasized the structural growth of Bitcoin and digital assets, while pushing four major policy initiatives: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, the creation of a U.S. Digital Asset Reserve, 0% capital gains tax on crypto, and the signing of the CLARITY Act.

Of course, this does not mean all of these policies will necessarily be implemented. Political dynamics and institutional procedures can always shift. Nevertheless, compared to previous years, it is clear that U.S. policy direction is moving toward a far more crypto‑friendly stance.

This article is best understood alongside the earlier analysis, “Why ETH Could Break Out Again in 2028: The Structural Thresholds Driven by Onchain Finance, AI, and RWA.” . That piece explains how Ethereum’s structural thresholds form, while this article analyzes how U.S. policy changes can accelerate BTC and ETH reaching their respective thresholds.

These developments go beyond political messaging — they may act as catalysts that accelerate Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) toward their structural thresholds by 2028.

1) Bitcoin (BTC) — The Two Major Structural Thresholds

Bitcoin’s core value lies in its scarcity, reserve‑asset potential, and institutional demand. Thus, the two most compelling thresholds for BTC’s structural re‑rating are the following:

BTC Threshold 1 — When Bitcoin Replaces 10% of Global Central Bank Gold Reserves

• Global central bank gold reserves: ~36,700 tons (≈ $2.4 trillion)
• 10% threshold: ~$240 billion worth of BTC held as official reserves
• BTC conversion (at current price $80,000):
  • $240B ÷ $80,000 = ~3 million BTC required
• Current government holdings: U.S., China, U.K., etc. hold an estimated ~600,000 BTC
• Progress toward threshold: 600,000 ÷ 3,000,000 = ~20% reached
• Status summary: Several governments hold BTC, but none have yet classified it as an official reserve asset

Meaning: When central banks replace 10% of their gold with BTC, Bitcoin becomes formally recognized as a nation‑level strategic reserve asset on par with gold. With ~20% progress already achieved, BTC is entering the early phase of being re‑evaluated as a core component of the global financial system.

BTC Threshold 2 — When Institutions and ETFs Hold 10% of Total BTC Supply

• Total BTC supply (fixed): 21 million BTC
• 10% threshold: 2.1 million BTC held by institutions and ETFs
• Current institutional/ETF holdings: U.S. spot ETFs, MicroStrategy, and other institutions hold an estimated ~1.2 million BTC
• Progress toward threshold: 1.2M ÷ 2.1M = ~57% reached
• Value at $80,000 per BTC:
  • 1.2M BTC × $80,000 = ~$960 billion
  • At full threshold (2.1M BTC): ~$1.68 trillion
• Structural meaning: Institutional long‑term holding rapidly removes liquid BTC from circulation, tightening supply and reshaping market dynamics.

Meaning: When institutions and ETFs hold 10% of all BTC, the market transitions from retail‑driven to institution‑driven. With ~57% already reached, institutional accumulation is structurally reducing liquid supply and anchoring BTC as a core asset within the global financial system.

2) How the Four U.S. Policies Accelerate BTC’s Two Thresholds

① Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair → Accelerates BTC Threshold 1

A Federal Reserve leadership that is not hostile to Bitcoin increases the likelihood that U.S. banks and financial institutions will face fewer restrictions on BTC holdings. This creates the institutional foundation for central banks to consider BTC as an alternative reserve asset, accelerating BTC Threshold 1.

② U.S. Digital Asset Reserve → Direct Catalyst for BTC Threshold 1

If the U.S. government officially holds BTC as part of its reserves, other nations may begin accumulating BTC to avoid falling behind. This rapidly increases sovereign BTC demand and directly accelerates BTC Threshold 1 (~3 million BTC required).

③ 0% Crypto Capital Gains Tax → Accelerates BTC Threshold 2

Removing tax barriers dramatically increases U.S. investment and ETF inflows. This strengthens long‑term institutional accumulation and significantly shortens the timeline to BTC Threshold 2 (10% institutional ownership).

④ CLARITY Act → Structural Acceleration of BTC Threshold 2

By clarifying BTC’s legal status, the Act enables banks, pension funds, and asset managers to hold BTC within regulatory frameworks. This structurally expands institutional demand and accelerates BTC Threshold 2.

3) Ethereum (ETH) — The Three Major Structural Thresholds

Unlike BTC, Ethereum’s value is driven by on‑chain finance, RWA, stablecoins, and L2 settlement. Thus, ETH’s structural re‑rating is defined by the following three thresholds:

ETH Threshold 1 — When 1% of the U.S. Treasury Market Is Tokenized

• Target: ~$270 billion
• Current: ~$8 billion
• Key issuers: BlackRock BUIDL, Franklin FOBXX, Ondo OUSG

ETH Threshold 2 — When 1% of Global M2 Converts into Stablecoins

• Target: ~$1 trillion
• Current: ~$150–200 billion
• Key issuers: USDC, PYUSD, USDM

ETH Threshold 3 — When 1% of Global Payment Fees Occur on L2

• Target: ~$8 million/day
• Current: ~$1–2 million/day
• Key L2s: Base, Optimism, Arbitrum, Polygon, Celo

4) How the Four U.S. Policies Accelerate ETH’s Three Thresholds

① Kevin Warsh → Accelerates ETH Threshold 1

A Fed supportive of RWA and tokenized assets increases the likelihood that banks and broker‑dealers will handle on‑chain Treasuries. This expands tokenized Treasury volume and accelerates ETH Threshold 1.

② U.S. Digital Asset Reserve → Accelerates ETH Threshold 2

If the U.S. government holds on‑chain dollars like USDC or PYUSD, the institutional credibility of stablecoins rises sharply. This accelerates global adoption and speeds up ETH Threshold 2.

③ 0% Crypto Capital Gains Tax → Accelerates ETH Threshold 3

On‑chain payments, payroll, and subscriptions surge in the U.S., driving rapid growth in L2 settlement fees and accelerating ETH Threshold 3.

④ CLARITY Act → Simultaneously Accelerates ETH Thresholds 1 & 2

By clarifying the legal status of RWA and stablecoins, the Act enables institutional adoption across both categories, directly accelerating ETH Threshold 1 and ETH Threshold 2.

Conclusion — In 2028, BTC and ETH Undergo Structural Re‑Rating Together

The four U.S. policy initiatives accelerate BTC and ETH toward their respective thresholds in different ways. BTC advances through reserve‑asset adoption, while ETH advances through on‑chain financial infrastructure. Yet both converge toward the same outcome: a structural re‑rating in 2028.

• BTC is rapidly approaching two major thresholds:
  - Threshold 1: 20% progress toward replacing 10% of central bank gold
  - Threshold 2: 57% progress toward 10% institutional ownership
  BTC is entering the phase of becoming a nation‑level strategic asset.
• ETH is advancing toward three on‑chain finance thresholds:
  - Treasury tokenization
  - Stablecoin monetization
  - L2 settlement growth
  ETH is solidifying its role as the global financial infrastructure layer.

Ultimately, BTC through reserve‑assetization and ETH through financial‑infrastructure‑ization are moving along different paths toward the same destination — a new asset‑class upgrade in 2028.

Younchan Jung
Researcher exploring structural shifts in AI, blockchain, and the on‑chain economy.

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